Poker variance calculator
A winning expectation can still come with long losing stretches. Simulate 10,000 paths to see how results can spread over a sample of hands.
Each 100-hand block has a normally distributed profit. A partial block scales its mean by its hand count and its deviation by the square root of that fraction. The simulation uses a fixed seed so the same inputs reproduce the same experiment.
For 50,000 hands at 5 bb/100 with a deviation of 100 bb per 100 hands, expected profit is 2,500 bb and the standard deviation of total profit is about 2,236 bb.
The 95% interval describes simulated outcomes, not confidence in your true win rate. Drawdowns are measured at 100-hand boundaries and may miss larger swings within a block. The largest sampled drawdown is not a worst-case guarantee. Inputs stay in this browser.